Retaking The US House In 2022

While 2020 did not turn out for Republicans in the Presidential race we made significant gains in the US House. During 2020 Democrats flipped 3 seats while Republicans flipped 15. Based on the numbers that means in 2022 Republicans only need to flip 5 seats, while retaining all current seats in order to retake the House. Even more optimistic would be to primary the 10 House members that voted to impeach Trump a 2^nd time on top of adding 5 new Conservatives. This would not only give us a Republican controlled house but also a Conservative controlled House. This means Conservatives need to forcefully target 15 total House seats in order to have a truly Conservative controlled House.

Now that we know the basic numbers it is important to develop a strategy that gives us the greatest opportunity to meet our Conservative goals.

The first and easiest consideration is to know which Republicans we need to primary in favor of more Conservative candidates. The following is the naughty list of 10 that voted against Trump and the Congressional Districts they represent:

1. Liz Cheney, Wyoming at large
2. To Rice, South Carolina 7^th
3. Dan Newhouse, Washington 4^th
4. Adam Kinzinger, Illinois 16^th
5. Anthony Gonzalez, Ohio 16^th
6. Fred Upton, Michigan 6^th
7. Jaime Herrera Beutler, Washington 3^rd
8. Peter Meijer, Michigan 3^rd
9. John Katko, New York 24^th
10. David Valadao, California 21^st

The next step is to determine where the other 5 minimum flips from the democrat control will come from. In developing this list we noted some stark realities as to the key reason why most of these districts went to democrats. Of the following list of 24 potential flips it should be noted none of these candidates received more than 52% total support in their 2020 Bid.

The first thing one should notice is how much the democrats outraised Republicans in these races. The difference is $53,058,6885 in these 24 races alone. The average margin of victory was only 3.2%. This means that an astounding $16,667,649.70 was spent per average single percentage point for their victory margin. Couple with the in-kind support of the liberal media through fake news and disproportional positive coverage, censorship by Big Tech such as Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and Twitter, and seemingly convenient glitches preventing ad placements and fundraising opportunities for Republicans by these same Big Tech players the average value gained by liberal candidates was likely 300-400% more than the original $16,667,649.70 spent per 1% gain.

So, what does this analysis mean? It means that Conservatives need to be better at raising money but even more importantly they need to better manage how they spend the money they do raise. Republicans/Conservatives need to better target easy wins vs. heavily supporting known Conservative strong beds of regional support. Spending millions in districts that are a gimme, while not properly focusing on districts that are close is irresponsible and goes against fiscal Conservative values. Improper focus of funds will continue to put liberals in power. How is it that liberals are beating us at the basic math when basic math is what Conservatives claim is a bedrock and core philosophy?

In all the libs directly outraised Republicans by $108,608,739 in 2020 in the House races. Knowing that almost ½ ($53,058,685) went to only 24 out of 435 House seats shows in fact the libs are beating us based on key strategies of both fundraising and how and where to focus the funds they have raised. In writing this blog I was asked why would Republican’s in charge of financial distributions make such bad choices. My belief is that many of the big donors and power brokers in the Republican party are looking to buy influence whereas liberals are looking to buy power. As strong Conservatives we need to wake up and realize without power there is no influence.

In the following tables the Cost Per % represent how much each Republican candidate was outraised in terms of a single percent margin of victory by the liberal candidate. For example, NJ 7^th’s Tom Malinowski raised $2,966,594.20 extra for 1% of his 1.2% margin of victory.

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To see the big picture from a different perspective the same table is sorted below by the amount each liberal candidate outraised their Republican opponent.